As you will see in the Briefing, important support levels were tested in today’s trading. While those levels held, there were also divergences in the market internals, suggesting the Markets is strengthening somewhat. However, that can change tomorrow, but it is important to recognize where support and resistance levels are and understand what the internals are doing as those levels are tested. The Markets are still driven by news events and oil prices. Therefore, while support held today, any news that comes out, can result if another round of selling to test even lower support.
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The Briefing
I am traveling the first part of this week and will not be able to do a Briefing until Thursday.
Keep in mind, typically when I am out of the office, the market makes a good move!!!!!!!
Stock Indices Reach Short-Term Support
The S&P and NASDAQ both reached short-term support levels. The Russell, that signaled this selloff, broke through short-term support. The Indices closed at or near their lows, suggesting possible follow through on Monday. So far, the internals are confirming price development. However, the NYSE is slightly oversold, but the NASDAQ is extremely oversold. This also suggests the possibility of a pause or rotation up to work off the oversold condition. If there is a lower low on Monday, look for internal divergences that will signal the pause or rotation. On the other hand, if today’s low is traded through and the internals continue to support the selling, expect the next level of support to be tested.
Stock Indices Shake Off Fed Announcement
After the Fed announcement and the press conference, price development in the Markets was muted. There was a real lack of volatility, which is rare. The Briefing outlines important short-term Key Reference Areas that if trading through will suggest a test of intermediate term support and resistance levels. So far, the internals are basically neutral.
Stock Indices Gap At The Open And Hold Above Resistance
The Indices were off to higher prices at the open today. The opened just above resistance, which is now support. The internals were not that strong. However, there was no rotation back through support, except for the Russell. Watch support very carefully tomorrow. If it is broken and the internals are weak and weakening, expect today to be a false breakout and there could be rotation through the range. On the other hand, trading above today’s high on strengthening internals would signal the continuation of the move higher.
Indices Fall And Internals Weaken
As discussed in yesterday’s Briefing, the Indices did trade below yesterday’s low and the internals continued to decline. They are now confirming the decline. Previously the internals held up as the selloff began. This was a pretty significant divergence. However, now it has been reconciled. The Indices are now all at important support. Also, the NASDAQ is extremely oversold. Therefore, expect a possible pause or rotation up to work off the oversold condition. If there is a lower low at the open and breadth is diverging, that will suggest the possible beginning of the pause.
Market Internals Continue To Weaken
The Indices opened lower today confirmed by extremely weak breadth and increasing volume. However, there was no follow-through selling. Due to the weak internals and lack of selling pressure, the Indices spent the rest of the day rotating around short-term support. GDP numbers are out tomorrow morning. It may take a news event to break this Market out of its current rotational pattern.
Stock Indices Recover From Extreme Oversold Condition
As discussed in last night’s Briefing, the Market closed yesterday in an extreme oversold condition. That led to the rotation higher today and working off of most of the oversold condition. While there could still be follow through on Tuesday, it will be important for the internals to strengthen significantly. For the past weeks, as price has migrated higher, the internals have weakened. I originally thought good NVDA earnings might help to strengthen the internals, but that was not the case. The Market is at risk on a continuation of higher prices without an increase in volume, breadth and other internals.
Stock Indices Pause In Front of CPI Release
The Stock Indices opened lower today but the internals suggested from the open the move was not going to be impulsive. The rest of the day was spent in a pause phase. It is likely the Market is waiting for the release of the CPI numbers tomorrow. That will likely determine the next degree move.
Stock Indices Attempt A Move Higher That Fails
After the release of the economic news this morning, buyers thought they could gain control and drive prices for a breakout move. That failed. The result was another day of rotation. Once again, we do have areas of good trade location but need to see those areas tested and the internals confirm a possible breakout move.
